Data Management Plan for the California LCC project:

Tidal Marsh Bird Population and Habitat Assessment

Table of Contents
Data Input - New Collections
  1   Tidal Marsh Elevation Models
  2   Tidal Marsh Bird Species Distribution Models
  3   Tidal Marsh Vegetation Species Distribution Models
  4   Tidal Marsh Bird Conservation Prioritization Model

Data Input - Existing Collections
      (nothing in this category)

Data Output - Product or Deliverables
  1   Future San Francisco Bay Tidal Marshes, A Climate Smart Planning Tool

Not Data - non-data Products
  1   South Bay Salt Pond Scenario Planning Case Study
  2   Stakeholder scoping meeting
  3   Guidance Document
  4   Stakeholder meeting to review impacts/identify strategies
  5   Optional: Monitoring protocol

Data Input - New Collections
1Tidal Marsh Elevation Models
Deliverable TypeDatasets / Database
DescriptionMarsh accretion was modeled by ESA PWA using the Marsh-98 model. The model assumes that rates of marsh plain elevation change depend on the availability of suspended sediment and organic material, water depth, and duration of inundation periods. If enough suspended sediment or organic material is available, then tidal marsh elevations can keep pace with increased inundation. Model outputs were linearly interpolated in 10-cm increments for starting elevations ranging from -3.7 to 1.7 m (relative to mean higher high water, or MHHW), and applied to a composite 5-m elevation grid (see below) for SF Bay. Results for each possible combination of projected sea level rise, sediment and organic material availability, and target year were combined to produce the scenario layers.
FormatRaster grids, ascii.
MetadataFGDC
Volume Estimate220 MBytes
Access and SharingPublic.
RestrictionsAcknowledgement, citation.
Archive OrganizationsPRBO Conservation Science, California Climate Commons.
CitationVeloz, S., M. Fitzgibbon, D. Stralberg, S. Michaile, D. Jongsomjit, D. Moody, N. Nur, L. Salas, J. Wood, and G. Ballard. 2011. Tidal Marsh Elevation Model.
Linkhttp://climate.calcommons.org/dataset/tidal-marsh-elevation-models
ContactSam Veloz, sveloz@prbo.org
Commons Cataloged DatasetTidal Marsh Elevation Models

2Tidal Marsh Bird Species Distribution Models
Deliverable TypeDatasets / Database
DescriptionDensities for five key tidal marsh-dependent bird species were modeled using boosted regression trees (Elith et al. 2008). The models are able to fit non-linear functions between environmental variables and the presence/absence or density of a species. Map values represent the probability of occurrence of a species or the density (birds/ha). Higher values in a map indicate a higher likelihood that a species will be present at a site. Bird species modeled: Common yellowthroat, black rail, clapper rail, marsh wren, song sparrow. Model outputs: Probably of occurrence, density (birds per hectare)
Formatascii grids
MetadataFGDC
Access and SharingPublic.
RestrictionsAcknowledgement, citation.
Archive OrganizationsPRBO Conservation Science, California Climate Commons.
CitationVeloz, S., M. Fitzgibbon, D. Stralberg, S. Michaile, D. Jongsomjit, D. Moody, N. Nur, L. Salas, J. Wood, and G. Ballard. 2011. Tidal Marsh Bird Species Distribution Models.
Linkhttp://climate.calcommons.org/dataset/tidal-marsh-bird-species-distribution-models
ContactSam Veloz, sveloz@prbo.org
Commons Cataloged DatasetTidal Marsh Bird Species Distribution Models

3Tidal Marsh Vegetation Species Distribution Models
Deliverable TypeDatasets / Database
DescriptionMaps of the probability of occurrence of tidal marsh plant species were created using generalized additive models (Hastie and Tibshirani 1990). Species modeled: Saltgrass, alkali-heath, SF Bay gumplant, jaumea, wirerush, pepperweed, giant reed, pickleweed, hard-stem tule, three-square bullrush, smooth cordgrass, California cordgrass, cattail.
FormatAscii grids.
MetadataFGDC
Access and SharingPublic.
Exclusive Use EmbargoNone.
RestrictionsAcknowledgment, citation.
Archive OrganizationsPRBO Conservation Science, California Climate Commons.
CitationVeloz, S., M. Fitzgibbon, D. Stralberg, S. Michaile, D. Jongsomjit, D. Moody, N. Nur, L. Salas, J. Wood, and G. Ballard. 2011. Tidal Marsh Plant Distribution Models.
Linkhttp://climate.calcommons.org/dataset/tidal-marsh-vegetation-species-distribution-models
ContactSam Veloz, sveloz@prbo.org
Commons Cataloged DatasetTidal Marsh Vegetation Species Distribution Models

4Tidal Marsh Bird Conservation Prioritization Model
Deliverable TypeDatasets / Database
DescriptionPriority areas for conservation of tidal marsh birds given current and future environmental conditions. Maps were created using Zonation, a spatial conservation planning software tool that can take into account multiple species and scenarios to create a hierarchical prioritization of the landscape.
FormatAscii grids.
MetadataFGDC
Access and SharingPublic.
Exclusive Use EmbargoNone.
RestrictionsAcknowledgment, citation.
Archive OrganizationsPRBO Conservation Science, California Climate Commons.
CitationVeloz, S.D., Nur, N., Salas, L. Jongsomjit, D., Stralberg, D., Wood, J. K., and Ballard, G. Modeling climate change impacts on tidal marsh birds: Restoration and conservation planning in the face of uncertainty. Ecosphere. 2013.
Linkhttp://climate.calcommons.org/dataset/tidal-marsh-bird-conservation-prioritization-model
ContactSam Veloz, sveloz@prbo.org
Commons Cataloged DatasetTidal Marsh Bird Conservation Prioritization

Data Output - Product or Deliverables
1Future San Francisco Bay Tidal Marshes, A Climate Smart Planning Tool
Deliverable TypeApplications and Tools
DescriptionThe Future San Francisco Bay Tidal Marshes Climate Smart Planning Tool is a web application that enables the user to view and query maps made with projected tidal marsh elevations, vegetation changes, five tidal marsh-dependent bird species distribution probabilities and densities, and current and future conservation prioritization. The map-making tool presents the user with current and future maps side by side, and allows for choices of higher and lower levels of sea level rise, sediment availability, and organic material accumulation. The purpose for using the tool is to support an understanding of how sea level rise may change the extent of tidal marsh habitat and bird species distribution over the next 100 years, support informed decisions about adaptation planning, restoration potential, and land acquisition given various sea-level rise and sedimentation scenarios, and to help identify areas both vulnerable and resilient to future sea-level rise.
FormatThe tool is a web application presenting the user with maps displayed on-screen via the web interface.
MetadataSee related datasets in this Data Management Plan.
Access and SharingPublic
RestrictionsAcknowledgement, citation.
Archive OrganizationsPRBO Conservation Science California Climate Commons
CitationVeloz, S., M. Fitzgibbon, D. Stralberg, S. Michaile, D. Jongsomjit, D. Moody, N. Nur, L. Salas, J. Wood, and G. Ballard. 2011. San Francisco Bay sea level rise: Climate change scenarios for tidal marsh habitats. [web application]. Petaluma, California. www.prbo.org/sfbayslr. (Accessed: March 31, 2011). (change accessed date as needed)
Linkhttp://data.prbo.org/apps/sfbslr/
ContactSam Veloz sveloz@prbo.org
Commons Cataloged Web ResourceFuture San Francisco Bay Tidal Marshes, A Climate Smart Planning Tool

Not Data - non-data Products
1South Bay Salt Pond Scenario Planning Case Study
Deliverable TypeReport
DescriptionWe propose using existing decision support tools (DST) in a scenario planning analysis for the South Bay Salt Ponds Restoration Project (SBSPRP) as a case study that other bayland managers can reference for best practices for using these DST’s for adaptation planning. Through substantial investment by the CA LCC and other partners, we have developed a set of DSTs that support conservation decision making for San Francisco Estuary ecosystems (www.prbo.org/sfbayslr and http://data.prbo.org/apps/pfss/). Our tools are ideally suited to support climate-smart restoration planning for shorebird and marshbird habitat. However, the utility of these tools could be promoted through their application in an actual case study, working closely with a team of managers. The strength of our tools is that they provide estuary-wide estimates of ecosystem response to a set of plausible but widely divergent sea-level rise scenarios. The resulting uncertainty in potential outcomes hampers the adaptive planning process. However, by applying a scenario planning analysis we can identify management solutions which are robust to uncertainty (Veloz et al., 2013). We propose to work with the SBSPRP Management Team (PMT) to engage in a scenario planning analysis to evaluate their adaptive management plan for tidal marsh restoration and salt pond management in the context of sea-level rise. Through the scenario planning process the PMT will explore a range of management options for a set of plausible future scenarios and identify actions that are robust to future uncertainty. In addition, this case study will demonstrate best practices for using our DSTs that other wetland managers could use to develop climate adaption plans. Moreover, our approach including the initial tool development could be applied in other estuaries and other ecosystems throughout the CA LCC region.

2Stakeholder scoping meeting
Deliverable TypeTraining / Outreach / Workshop
DescriptionThe proposed project will involve four stages and an optional fifth stage depending on funding. The first stage will involve a scoping meeting wherein the PMT will: 1) describe the specific management questions for the analysis, 2) describe the spatial and temporal extent of the project, and 3) select indicators for the analysis. Potential management questions include, identifying which salt ponds should remain as ponds and which should be restored to tidal marsh and whether the currently adopted 50:50 ratio of tidal marsh habitat to salt pond habitat will meet management targets under all future sea-level and sediment scenarios.

3Guidance Document
Deliverable TypeReport
DescriptionWe will prepare a guiding document in the final stage to communicate to other stakeholders in the region the process that was used, what were the outcomes and what are the best practices for using our existing decision support tools and products.

4Stakeholder meeting to review impacts/identify strategies
Deliverable TypeTraining / Outreach / Workshop
DescriptionDuring the second stage of the project, PRBO will analyze the impacts of the management actions on the indicators proposed in stage 1for each of four future scenarios, defined by high and low rates of sea-level rise and high and low suspended sediment concentrations. Potential indicators used in the impacts assessment could include the density and abundance of tidal marsh birds and shorebirds. In this stage, management actions that are robust or that fail under the four scenarios can be identified. The PMT will convene a workshop in the third stage of the project where the impacts for each of the scenarios will be reviewed. Through the meeting the PMT will be encouraged to explore new management actions which can accommodate the range of possible future outcomes illustrated in the scenarios.

5Optional: Monitoring protocol
Deliverable TypeMethodology / Protocol
DescriptionAn optional fifth stage of the project is to develop a monitoring protocol based on the analysis that will be designed to best identify when “triggers” for adaptive management are reached. Nur and Reiter will lead the development of the monitoring protocol incorporating findings from the SF Bay shorebird monitoring plan and tidal marshbird monitoring plan to assess compatibility with PMT monitoring needs.

This Data Management Plan structure is based on recommendations from the Data Management Plan Guidance document from the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center