Data Management Plan for the California LCC project:

Decision support for climate change adaptation and fire management strategies for at risk species in southern California

Table of Contents
Data Input - New Collections
      (nothing in this category)

Data Input - Existing Collections
      (nothing in this category)

Data Output - Product or Deliverables
  1   Maps: Projected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of Ceanothus greggii
  2   Maps: Projected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of Tecate cypress
  3   Maps: Projected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of Ceanothus verrucosus
  4   Maps: Projected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of big-eared woodrat (Neotoma macrotis)
  5   Evaluation of assisted colonization strategies under global change for a rare, fire-dependent plant (Tecate cypress).
  6   Does functional type vulnerability to multiple threats depend on spatial context in Mediterranean-climate regions? (Spatially/temporally explicit management recommendations for Ceanothus species: greggii and verrucosus)
  7   Linking spatially explicit species distribution and population models to plan for the persistence of species under global change. (Adaptive management framework for decision making under global change.)
  8   Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for long-lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization and fire regime.
  9   Maps: Projected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of California gnatcatcher

Not Data - non-data Products
  1   Article in March 2014 Estuary News

Data Output - Product or Deliverables
1Maps: Projected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of Ceanothus greggii
Deliverable TypeDatasets / Database
DescriptionData layers of current and projected suitable habitat for Ceanothus greggii in the South Coast Ecoregion in California, USA. Data set includes scenarios with and without projected urban growth over a 50 year period, and with and without projected climate change over a 100 year period.
FormatGeotiff
Processing and WorkflowThe potential distribution of Ceanothus greggii was modeled using a MaxEnt species distribution model using recent and future climate data with presence records from the San Diego Natural History Museum. Species distributions were modeled only for the South Coast Ecoregion in California, USA as this is where management options and climate change adaptation possibilities are currently being examined for the species. Recent climate data were based on the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) at 800 m resolution downscaled to 90 m. We modeled climate change impacts using the A2 emissions scenario and two global change models; the Department of Energy’s Parallel Climate Model (PCM) the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 model (GFDL) which were also downscaled. Projected data from 2070-2099 was used to create a future endpoint and interpolated with averaged conditions of the recent climate (1970-1999) to create a time series of distribution changes: 2000, 2050 and 2100 are presented here. A projected urbanization scenario from 2000-2050 based on the SLEUTH cellular autumaton model was overlaid onto the Ceanothus species distribution model (publicly owned land and conservation reserves were excluded from development in this implementation). After 2050 no further urbanization occurs in this model due to significant uncertainty in projections of urbanization past 50 years. The model assumed that where urbanization occurred Ceanothus would not. Projections were run under climate change conditions (PCM and GFDL) and without (urbanization only) to provide a range of possibilities for the species under global change.
MetadataPlease see publications produced by this project.
Access and SharingClimate Commons
Exclusive Use EmbargoNone
RestrictionsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 License.
Archive OrganizationsData Basin
CitationSyphard AD, Regan HM, Franklin J, Swab R, Bonebrake TC (in press) Does functional type vulnerability to multiple threats depend on spatial context in Mediterranean-climate regions? Diversity and Distributions, DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12076. (Early Online view available)
Linkhttp://databasin.org/datasets/da9cd37a8d344aa5be3b366a617ad206
ContactHelen May Regan
Commons Cataloged DatasetProjected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of five Southern California species

2Maps: Projected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of Tecate cypress
Deliverable TypeDatasets / Database
DescriptionData layers of current and projected suitable habitat for Tecate cypress in the South Coast Ecoregion in California, USA. Data set includes scenarios with and without projected urban growth over a 50 year period, and with and without projected climate change over a 100 year period.
FormatASCII files
Processing and WorkflowThe potential distribution of Tecate cypress was modeled using a MaxEnt species distribution model using recent and future climate data with presence records from the San Diego Natural History Museum. Species distributions were modeled only for the South Coast Ecoregion in California, USA as this is where management options and climate change adaptation possibilities are currently being examined for the species. Recent climate data were based on the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) at 800 m resolution downscaled to 90 m. We modeled climate change impacts using the A2 emissions scenario and two global change models; the Department of Energy’s Parallel Climate Model (PCM) the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 model (GFDL) which were also downscaled. Projected data from 2070-2099 was used to create a future endpoint and interpolated with averaged conditions of the recent climate (1970-1999) to create a time series of distribution changes: 2000, 2050 and 2100 are presented here. A projected urbanization scenario from 2000-2050 based on the SLEUTH cellular autumaton model was overlaid onto the Tecate cypress distribution model (publicly owned land and conservation reserves were excluded from development in this implementation). After 2050 no further urbanization occurs in this model due to significant uncertainty in projections of urbanization past 50 years. The model assumed that where urbanization occurred Tecate cypress would not. Projections were run under climate change conditions (PCM and GFDL) and without (urbanization only) to provide a range of possibilities for the species under global change.
MetadataThere is no metadata; please see the publication.
Access and SharingThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 License.
RestrictionsNone
Archive OrganizationsClimate Commons
CitationRegan, H.M., A.D. Syphard, J. Franklin, R. Swab, L Markovchick, A.L. Flint, L.E. Flint, P.H. Zedler. Evaluation of assisted colonization strategies under global change for a rare, fire-dependent plant. Global Change Biology 18: 936–947, 2012.
ContactHelen Regan helen.regan@ucr.edu
Commons Cataloged DatasetProjected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of five Southern California species

3Maps: Projected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of Ceanothus verrucosus
Deliverable TypeDatasets / Database
DescriptionData layers of current and projected suitable habitat for Ceanothus verrucosus in the South Coast Ecoregion in California, USA. Data set includes scenarios with and without projected urban growth over a 50 year period, and with and without projected climate change over a 100 year period.
FormatGeotiff
Processing and WorkflowThe potential distribution of Ceanothus verrucosus was modeled using a MaxEnt species distribution model using recent and future climate data with presence records from the San Diego Natural History Museum. Species distributions were modeled only for the South Coast Ecoregion in California, USA as this is where management options and climate change adaptation possibilities are currently being examined for the species. Recent climate data were based on the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) at 800 m resolution downscaled to 90 m. We modeled climate change impacts using the A2 emissions scenario and two global change models; the Department of Energy’s Parallel Climate Model (PCM) the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 model (GFDL) which were also downscaled. Projected data from 2070-2099 was used to create a future endpoint and interpolated with averaged conditions of the recent climate (1970-1999) to create a time series of distribution changes: 2000, 2050 and 2100 are presented here. A projected urbanization scenario from 2000-2050 based on the SLEUTH cellular autumaton model was overlaid onto the Ceanothus species distribution model (publicly owned land and conservation reserves were excluded from development in this implementation). After 2050 no further urbanization occurs in this model due to significant uncertainty in projections of urbanization past 50 years. The model assumed that where urbanization occurred Ceanothus would not. Projections were run under climate change conditions (PCM and GFDL) and without (urbanization only) to provide a range of possibilities for the species under global change.
Backup and StorageClimate Commons, Data Basin
Access and SharingClimate Commons, Data Basin
Exclusive Use EmbargoNone
RestrictionsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 License.
Archive OrganizationsData Basin
CitationSyphard AD, Regan HM, Franklin J, Swab R, Bonebrake TC (in press) Does functional type vulnerability to multiple threats depend on spatial context in Mediterranean-climate regions? Diversity and Distributions, DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12076 (Early Online view available)
ContactHelen May Regan
Commons Cataloged DatasetProjected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of five Southern California species

4Maps: Projected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of big-eared woodrat (Neotoma macrotis)
Deliverable TypeDatasets / Database
DescriptionData layers of current and projected suitable habitat for big-eared woodrat (Neotoma macrotis) in the South Coast Ecoregion in California, USA. Data set includes scenarios with and without projected urban growth over a 50 year period, and with and without projected climate change over a 50 year period.
FormatGeotiff
Processing and WorkflowThe potential distribution of the big-eared woodrat (Neotoma macrotis) was modeled using a MaxEnt species distribution model using recent and future climate data with presence records from the San Diego Natural History Museum. Species distributions were modeled only for the South Coast Ecoregion in California, USA as this is where management options and climate change adaptation possibilities are currently being examined for the species. Recent climate data were based on the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) at 800 m resolution downscaled to 90 m. We modeled climate change impacts using the A2 emissions scenario and two global change models; the Department of Energy’s Parallel Climate Model (PCM) the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 model (GFDL) which were also downscaled. Projected data from 2070-2099 was used to create a future endpoint and interpolated with averaged conditions of the recent climate (1970-1999) to create a time series of distribution changes: 2000, 2050 and 2100 are presented here. A projected urbanization scenario from 2000-2050 based on the SLEUTH cellular autumaton model was overlaid onto the Ceanothus species distribution model (publicly owned land and conservation reserves were excluded from development in this implementation). After 2050 no further urbanization occurs in this model due to significant uncertainty in projections of urbanization past 50 years. The model assumed that where urbanization occurred the woodrat would not. Projections were run under climate change conditions (PCM and GFDL) and without (urbanization only) to provide a range of possibilities for the species under global change.
MetadataNo metadata, referring users to the publications.
Access and SharingThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 License.
Archive OrganizationsClimate Commons
ContactHelen Regan helen.regan@ucr.edu
Commons Cataloged DatasetProjected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of five Southern California species

5Evaluation of assisted colonization strategies under global change for a rare, fire-dependent plant (Tecate cypress).
Deliverable TypePublication
DescriptionAbstract: As a clear consensus is emerging that suitable habitat for many species will dramatically reduce and/or shift with climate change, attention is turning to adaptation strategies to address these impacts. Assisted colonization is one such strategy that has been predominantly discussed in terms of the costs of introducing potential competitors into new communities and the benefits of reducing extinction risk. However, the success or failure of assisted colonization will depend on a range of population-level factors on which the climate change literature has been relatively silent—the quality of the recipient habitat, the number and life stages of translocated individuals, the establishment of translocated individuals in their new habitat and whether the recipient habitat is subject to ongoing threats all will play an important role in population persistence. We link a population model with dynamic bioclimate envelopes to investigate expected changes in populations with climate change, the impact of altered fire regimes on population persistence, and how much assisted colonization is necessary to minimize risk of decline in populations of Tecate cypress, a rare endemic tree in the California Floristic Province, a biodiversity hotspot. We show that when there are large source populations that are expected to decline dramatically due to habitat contractions, multiple nearby sites predicted to contain suitable habitat, minimal natural dispersal, high rates of establishment of translocated populations, and the absence of more serious ongoing threats, assisted colonization may be a risk-minimizing adaptation strategy. However, when serious ongoing threats exist, assisted colonization is ineffective.
FormatPublished journal article
Access and SharingPublic
CitationRegan, H.M., A.D. Syphard, J. Franklin, R. Swab, L Markovchick, A.L. Flint, L.E. Flint, P.H. Zedler. Evaluation of assisted colonization strategies under global change for a rare, fire-dependent plant. Global Change Biology 18: 936–947, 2012.
DOI10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02586.x
ContactHelen Regan helen.regan@ucr.edu

6Does functional type vulnerability to multiple threats depend on spatial context in Mediterranean-climate regions? (Spatially/temporally explicit management recommendations for Ceanothus species: greggii and verrucosus)
Deliverable TypePublication
DescriptionAbstract: Aim: Conservation efforts in Mediterranean-climate regions are complicated by species’ variability in response to multiple threats. Functional type classifications incorporating life-history traits with disturbance response strategies provide a framework for predicting groups of species’ response to fire, but it is unclear whether these classifications will be useful when species are exposed to multiple threats, or differ in spatial context. We evaluate whether species of the same fire-response functional type exhibit similar responses to disturbance relative to, and in combination with, climate and land use change; and whether the dominant threat depends on spatial context. Location: Mediterranean southern California Methods: We developed species distribution models under current and future climate conditions for two fire-obligate seeding native shrub species that differ in geographical location and area of occupancy. Dynamic habitat maps representing alternative scenarios of climate change and urban growth were coupled with population models and simulated stochastic fire regimes. Results: The disturbance that defines their classification, fire, is projected to be the most serious threat to both species when fire frequency is high. At longer fire return intervals, however, the projected ranking of threats differed between the species, and spatial context played an important role in defining vulnerability. Main conclusions: Considering ongoing increases in fire frequency in Mediterranean-climate regions worldwide, functional type classification based on disturbance response may continue to provide a useful framework for biodiversity conservation efforts, but spatial context should also be accounted for. It may be most useful to consider the distribution of vulnerable species with regards to urban development patterns, areas of “high-velocity” climate shifts, and places where altered fire regimes are likely to interact with other threats.
FormatPublished journal article
CitationSyphard, A.D., H.M. Regan, J. Franklin, R. Swab, T.C. Bonebrake. Does functional type vulnerability to multiple threats depend on spatial context in Mediterranean-climate regions? Diversity and Distributions. 19, 1263–1274, 2013.
DOI10.1111/ddi.12076
ContactAlexandra Syphard asyphard@yahoo.com

7Linking spatially explicit species distribution and population models to plan for the persistence of species under global change. (Adaptive management framework for decision making under global change.)
Deliverable TypePublication
DescriptionAbstract: Conservation managers and policy makers require models that can rank the impacts of multiple, interacting threats on biodiversity so that actions can be prioritized. We apply an integrated modeling framework that links species distribution models, spatially explicit population models and global change scenarios, to predict the effects of threats and management to the viability of plant populations for five species in southern California’s Mediterranean-type ecosystem. The framework integrates forecasts of land use change from an urban growth model with projections of future climatically suitable habitat from species distribution models, which are linked to a stochastic population model. The population model includes species life history and demographic parameters and incorporates the effects of disturbance regimes and management actions on population viability. This framework has allowed us to: 1) rank threats by their relative and cumulative impacts on population viability, e.g., land use change, climate change, altered disturbance regimes, or invasive species, and 2) rank management responses in terms of their effectiveness, e.g., land protection, assisted dispersal, fire management and invasive species control. Too-frequent fire was often the top threat for the species we studied, and thus, fire reduction was frequently ranked among the most important management options. Projected changes in the distribution of suitable habitat as a result of climate change were generally large, but varied across species and climate scenarios; urban development often served to exacerbate loss of suitable habitat. This framework is most effective when management objectives are species-specific and when disturbance, such as fire, has a quantifiable impact on population dynamics.
FormatPublished journal article
Access and SharingPublic
CitationFranklin, J. H.M. Regan, and A.D. Syphard. Linking spatially explicit species distribution and population models to plan for the persistence of species under global change. Environmental Conservation. (First View 10.1017/S0376892913000453)
DOI10.1017/S0376892913000453
ContactJanet Franklin janet.franklin1@gmail.com

8Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for long-lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization and fire regime.
Deliverable TypePublication
DescriptionAbstract: Most species and ecosystems face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions for population persistence in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization and changes in fire regime on a long-lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies; a dominant plant functional type in many fire-prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of the Mediterranean-type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing multiple species habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declining suitable habitat to two unoccupied recipient patches with increasing suitable habitat under two projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled eight fire return intervals approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Our results show that, invariably, fire return intervals must be maintained at or above a minimum level for long-lived obligate seeding populations to remain viable. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts may lessen the impact of climate change and land-use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these are as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land-use and climate change, an integrative conservation approach managing multiple threats can diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional threats are ignored.
FormatJournal article
Access and SharingPublic
CitationBonebrake, T.C., A.D. Syphard, J. Franklin, K.E. Anderson, H.R. Akçakaya, T. Mizerek, C. Winchell, and H.M. Regan. Fire Management, Managed Relocation and Land Conservation Options for Long-Lived Obligate Seeding Species under Global Changes in Cliamte, Urbanization and Fire Regime. (Early View DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12253)
DOI10.1111/cobi.12253
ContactHelen Regan helen.regan@ucr.edu

9Maps: Projected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of California gnatcatcher
Deliverable TypeDatasets / Database
DescriptionData layers of current and projected suitable habitat for California gnatcatcher in the South Coast Ecoregion in California, USA. Data set includes scenarios with and without projected urban growth over a 50 year period, and with and without projected climate change over a 100 year period.
FormatASCII files
Processing and WorkflowThe potential distribution of California gnatcatcher was modeled using a MaxEnt species distribution model using recent and future climate data with presence records from the San Diego Natural History Museum. Species distributions were modeled only for the South Coast Ecoregion in California, USA as this is where management options and climate change adaptation possibilities are currently being examined for the species. Recent climate data were based on the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) at 800 m resolution downscaled to 90 m. We modeled climate change impacts using the A2 emissions scenario and two global change models; the Department of Energy’s Parallel Climate Model (PCM) the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 model (GFDL) which were also downscaled. Projected data from 2070-2099 was used to create a future endpoint and interpolated with averaged conditions of the recent climate (1970-1999) to create a time series of distribution changes: 2000, 2050 and 2100 are presented here. A projected urbanization scenario from 2000-2050 based on the SLEUTH cellular autumaton model was overlaid onto the species distribution model (publicly owned land and conservation reserves were excluded from development in this implementation). After 2050 no further urbanization occurs in this model due to significant uncertainty in projections of urbanization past 50 years. The model assumed that where urbanization occurred gnatcatchers would not. Projections were run under climate change conditions (PCM and GFDL) and without (urbanization only) to provide a range of possibilities for the species under global change.
Access and SharingPublic
Archive OrganizationsClimate Commons
ContactHelen Regan helen.regan@ucr.edu
Commons Cataloged DatasetProjected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of five Southern California species

Not Data - non-data Products
1Article in March 2014 Estuary News
Deliverable TypePublication : Article
DescriptionArticle in San Francisco Estuary Partnerships' March 2014 issue of Estuary News magazine.
Linkhttp://climate.calcommons.org/sites/default/files/CALCC-Mar2014-EstuaryNews.pdf

This Data Management Plan structure is based on recommendations from the Data Management Plan Guidance document from the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center