2010020512592900FALSE20120130094853002012013009501700CalculateStatistics 1 1 # {69C079A3-5407-462D-8FF8-07C070E9FD90}ItemDescription1.0Microsoft Windows 2000 Version 5.2 (Build 3790) Service Pack 2; ESRI ArcCatalog 9.3.1.3000enCurrent (2010) and future (2030-2110) conservation prioritization of existing and potential tidal marsh habitat in California's San Francisco Bay estuary. The prioritization is based upon distribution and abundance models for five tidal marsh bird species which utilized avian observation data (2000 - 2009), a marsh accretion model, and physical variables (e.g. salinity, distance to nearest channel, slope, etc). Values represent the rank in which pixels were removed from the landscape using Zonation Conservation Planning software with core area zonation algorithm. Higher values indicate pixels that were removed last and are of the highest conservation value. See http://data.prbo.org/apps/sfbslr/sfbslrapp for interactive maps and additional details.PRBO Conservation Science is currently assessing the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) and salinity changes on San Francisco Bay tidal marsh ecosystems. Tidal marshes are naturally resilient to SLR, in that they can build up elevation through the capture of suspended sediment and deposition of organic material (vegetation). Thus, a "bathtub" model approach is not appropriate for assessing impacts to this dynamic habitat. Rather, dynamic accretion potential can be modeled annually based on tidal inundation, sediment availability, and the rate of organic accumulation (related to salinity).Working with researchers at Philip Williams and Associates (http://www.pwa-ltd.com) University of San Francisco, University of California Berkeley, and San Francisco State University, we have developed a set of geographically based climate change scenarios based on a dynamic marsh accretion model. We have developed preliminary projections for potential changes in tidal marsh elevation and extent over five time frames (20, 40, 60, 80 and 100 years from now) and under eight scenarios representing different assumptions about sea-level rise, salinity, and sediment supply. Our goal is to provide an overview of potential future tidal marsh extent and location in San Francisco Bay, as well as information on priorities for restoration and conservation efforts.Due to the additional complexity of open-bay hydrodynamics, our analysis does not include bay-edge mudflatsSee the following website for additional information http://data.prbo.org/apps/sfbslr/Sam VelozApril 1, 2011currsuboptimal_caz.rank.ascoptimal_cazall.rank.aschttp:\\www.prbo.org\climatemapsraster digital dataSam Veloz, Leo Salas, Nadav Nur, Julian Wood, Leonard Liu, Dennis Jongsomjit, Grant Ballard. PRBO Conservation Science, Petaluma, CA.ground condition20002009As needed-124.505216-113.49320942.06888932.424772530409.563244603809.5632444137541.1937044238141.193704NBII Biocomplexity Thesaurus [http://thesaurus.nbii.gov/portal/server.pt]BirdsNongame birdsClimatic ChangeClimate ImpactsSpatial DistributionConservation prioritizationCaliforniaSan Francisco BayContact PRBO for data-sharing agreementContact PRBO for data-sharing agreementRaster DatasetSam Veloz, Leo Salas, Nadav Nur, Julian Wood, Leonard Liu, Dennis Jongsomjit, Grant Ballard. PRBO Conservation Science, Petaluma, CA.Sam VelozPRBO Conservation ScienceLandscape ecologistmailing and physical address3820 Cypress Drive #11PetalumaCA94954USA707.781.2555 sveloz@prbo.orgJPEGMicrosoft Windows 2000 Version 5.2 (Build 3790) Service Pack 2; ESRI ArcCatalog 9.3.1.3000optimal_cazall.rank.asc530409.563244603809.5632444238141.1937044137541.1937041-122.656492-121.81302938.2908337.378811-122.656492-121.81302938.2908337.378811PRBO Conservation Science is currently assessing the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) and salinity changes on San Francisco Bay tidal marsh ecosystems. Tidal marshes are naturally resilient to SLR, in that they can build up elevation through the capture of suspended sediment and deposition of organic material (vegetation). Thus, a "bathtub" model approach is not appropriate for assessing impacts to this dynamic habitat. Rather, dynamic accretion potential can be modeled annually based on tidal inundation, sediment availability, and the rate of organic accumulation (related to salinity).Working with researchers at Philip Williams and Associates (http://www.pwa-ltd.com) University of San Francisco, University of California Berkeley, and San Francisco State University, we have developed a set of geographically based climate change scenarios based on a dynamic marsh accretion model. We have developed preliminary projections for potential changes in tidal marsh elevation and extent over five time frames (20, 40, 60, 80 and 100 years from now) and under eight scenarios representing different assumptions about sea-level rise, salinity, and sediment supply. Our goal is to provide an overview of potential future tidal marsh extent and location in San Francisco Bay, as well as information on priorities for restoration and conservation efforts.Due to the additional complexity of open-bay hydrodynamics, our analysis does not include bay-edge mudflats<DIV STYLE="text-align:Left;"><DIV><DIV><P><SPAN>Current (2010) conservation prioritization of existing tidal marsh habitat in California's San Francisco Bay estuary. The prioritization is based upon distribution and abundance models for five tidal marsh bird species which utilized avian observation data (2000 - 2009), a marsh accretion model, and physical variables (e.g. salinity, distance to nearest channel, slope, etc). Values represent the rank in which pixels were removed from the landscape using Zonation Conservation Planning software with core area zonation algorithm. Higher values indicate pixels that were removed last and are of the highest conservation value. See http://data.prbo.org/apps/sfbslr/sfbslrapp for interactive maps and additional details.</SPAN></P></DIV></DIV></DIV>Sam Veloz, Leo Salas, Nadav Nur, Julian Wood, Leonard Liu, Dennis Jongsomjit, Grant Ballard. PRBO Conservation Science, Petaluma, CA.BirdsNongame birdsClimatic ChangeClimate ImpactsSpatial DistributionDensityContact PRBO for data-sharing agreementenFGDC Content Standards for Digital Geospatial MetadataFGDC-STD-001-1998local timeSam VelozPRBO Conservation Sciencemailing and physical addressPetalumaCA949543820 Cypress Dr. #11USA707.781.2555Spatial Ecologistsveloz@prbo.orgcontact by email20120130http://www.esri.com/metadata/esriprof80.htmlESRI Metadata ProfileArcGIS Metadata1.0datasetLocal Area Network002Raster DatasetContact PRBO for dataRasterPixel2012146850.00000050.000000321Upper LeftFALSENone1pixel codesAAIGridFALSErow and column50.00000050.000000metersUniversal Transverse Mercator100.999600-123.0000000.000000500000.0000000.000000GCS_North_American_1983NAD_1983_UTM_Zone_10NNorth American Datum of 1983Geodetic Reference System 806378137.000000298.25722220120130NAD_1983_UTM_Zone_10NModeled density (birds/hectare) using a boosted regression tree.