Using Scenarios to Explore Climate Change: A Handbook for Practitioners

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Rose, Matthew, and Star, Jonathan
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Developed under the National Park Service Climate Change Response Strategy, this guide is part of an interdisciplinary, cross-cutting approach to addressing climate change. The overall program supports NPS efforts to understand climate science in national parks and surrounding areas and to adapt to a changing climate to promote the resiliency of our cultural and natural heritage. Actively engaging ourselves and our audiences in park stewardship is a key ingredient of the climate change communication strategy and an integral component in addressing the effects of climate change.

This handbook describes the five-step process for developing multivariate climate change
scenarios taught by the Global Business Network (GBN) during a series of training
workshops hosted by the National Park Service in 2010 and 2011. The authors created this
guide as a reference for workshop participants who possess some familiarity with scenario
planning. The process featured in this manual is not a definitive method for building
climate change scenarios, since many valid methods exist to develop climate change
scenarios. The technique presented here is just one effective and proven approach.


Rose, M., and J. Star. 2013. Using Scenarios to Explore Climate Change: A Handbook for Practitioners. National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior.