CA LCC Project

Confronting uncertainty in species distribution projections

Project Information

The CA Academy of Science & PRBO Conservation Science propose a systematic analysis of uncertainty in modeling the future distributions of ~50 California endemic plant species and ~50 California land birds, explicitly partitioning among 5 alternative sources of variation and testing for their respective contributions to overall variation among modeled outcomes. They will map the uncertainty from identified sources, which can guide decisions about monitoring, restoration, acquisition, infrastructure, etc., in relation to climate change.

Full Proposal Title: 
Confronting uncertainty in species distribution projections: Increasing the applicability of an essential tool in climate change adaptation planning
Project Lead: 
Healy Hamilton,
Starting Date: 
Ending Date: 
Total LCC Funding: 
Total Matching or In-Kind Funds: 

Products of this project

Title Deliverable Typesort descending Release Date Commons Catalog Record or External Link
Distribution maps of ensemble averages and standard deviations for each species modeled future bioclimatic envelope Datasets / Database Mar 2014
Maps of community turnover, changes in species richness, and the uncertainty underlying these synthetic analyses. Datasets / Database Mar 2014
Spatial data layers demonstrating the proportion of variation explained by each source of uncertainty tested. Datasets / Database Dec 2014
Manuscript for peer - reviewed publication Publication Dec 2014