Using scenario planning to support climate-smart adaptation for the South Bay Salt Ponds Restoration Project: A case study for making science accessible to managers

This project uses existing decision support tools (DST) in a scenario planning analysis for the South Bay Salt Ponds Restoration Project (SBSPRP) as a case study that other bayland managers can reference for best practices for using these DSTs for adaptation planning. Through substantial investment by the CA LCC and other partners, we have developed a set of DSTs that support conservation decision-making for San Francisco Estuary ecosystems (www.prbo.org/sfbayslr and ). These tools are ideally suited to support climate-smart restoration planning for shorebird and marshbird habitat. However, the utility of these tools could be promoted through their application in an actual case study, working closely with a team of managers. The strength of our tools is that they provide estuary-wide estimates of ecosystem response to a set of plausible but widely divergent sea-level rise scenarios. The resulting uncertainty in potential outcomes hampers the adaptive planning process. However, by applying a scenario planning analysis we can identify management solutions which are robust to uncertainty (Veloz et al., 2013). The Point Blue Conservation Science project team worked with the SBSPRP Management Team (PMT) to engage in a scenario planning analysis to evaluate their adaptive management plan for tidal marsh restoration and salt pond management in the context of sea-level rise. Through the scenario planning process the PMT explores a range of management options for a set of plausible future scenarios and identify actions that are robust to future uncertainty. In addition, this case study demonstrates best practices for using these DSTs that other wetland managers could use to develop climate adaption plans. Moreover, this approach including the initial tool development can be applied in other estuaries and other ecosystems throughout the CA LCC region.