BioMove – Creation of a Complex and Dynamic Model for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on California Vegetation

There is substantial evidence that climate change is affecting ecosystems worldwide.
California is no exception. With insights from historic climate change and subsequent
species’ responses, scientists are developing refined tools to evaluate how species
change may continue in the future and what impact this may have on biodiversity and
conservation. Accepted means of modeling the distribution of species have a number of
shortcomings stemming from, among other things, their neglect of the ways individual
species respond to changes in their habitats or the complex effects of competition
between species. Furthermore, certain types of accepted models do not account for
constraints on species dispersal, such as those imposed by disturbances such as land use
change or fire. BioMove is a novel dynamic species modeling approach developed to
address these issues. It simulates a target species in a dynamic landscape in competition
with one or many different broader classes of vegetation. It integrates competition,
dispersal, and disturbance models. It has important application potential for threatened species assessment, coordination of resource management efforts, modeling of invasive species into various localized biological systems, and other advanced climate change research.