West-Wide Climate Risk Assessment: Sacramento and San Joaquin Basins Climate Impact Assessment

This report presents the results of the Sacramento and San Joaquin
Climate Impact Assessment (SSJIA), which addresses impacts in two of
these major basins in California. The SSJIA also includes the Tulare
Lake Basin in the southern part of the Central Valley of California;
part of the Trinity River watershed from which some water is diverted
into the Central Valley; and a portion of California’s central coast
region where Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Project
(SWP) water supplies are delivered. The water supplies and demands
analyzed in the SSJIA include CVP water users, SWP water users, and
the other non - project water users in the study area. Included in
the report is an overview of the current climate and hydrology of
California’s Central Valley (Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake
Basins), an analysis of observed trends in temperature and
precipitation over historical record, and a comparison of these trends
to future water operation projections not considering climate
change. The report then presents hydrologic projections developed from
global climate models to evaluate the ways that projected climatic and
hydrologic changes could impact water availability and management and
water demands within the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake
basins.

The SSJIA analyzes potential impacts of climate change under
a current trends projection of future urban growth considering the
conversion of agricultural to urban land use and assuming the
continuation of current crop types in the Central Valley. Finally, the
SSJIA a ssesses risks to the eight major resource categories
identified in the SWA by looking at a range of climate futures and
attempting to book - end future uncertainties.