Climate-Driven Geomorphic Alteration of Intertidal Habitats for Foraging Migratory Birds in the San Francisco Bay Estuary; A California Landscape Conservation Cooperative Project

California Landscape Conservation Cooperative Project on estuarine shoals and vertebrate predators: In this report, we describe the integrated research program supported by the California LCC addressing sea level rise effects on estuarine shoals and the vertebrate predators dependent on these habitats. We present results from the first year objectives to determine the feasibility of the project and to: 1) host a modeling workshop with partners to identify what parameters are needed to model effects of sea level rise on the ecology of shoals and migratory birds; 2) use existing shoals modeling grids (Ganju and Schoellhamer 2010) to develop methodology for quantifying key metrics for habitat change; 3) conduct a comprehensive review on foraging of migratory birds on shoal habitats, and 4) report on the findings of the workshop and proposed habitat change metrics from the grid approach.

Modeling Workshop Results: On 26-27 October 2010, we hosted a workshop in Berkeley, California entitled ―"Modeling Effects of Sea Level Rise on the Ecology of Shoals and Migratory Birds." The two-day workshop invited 20 participants including invited speakers, research scientists, and resource managers. Expert modelers invited to participate included Dr. Dano Roelvink (Deltares, Netherlands), Dr. Neil Ganju (USGS Woods Hole Science Center), and Dr. Noah Knowles (USGS Menlo Park Science Center). The overall goal was to discuss modeling approaches and identify linkages between physical and biological models about this critical topic. Results from the discussions indicated that modeling sea level rise (SLR) effeA brief summary of key modeling topics are presented in following paragraphs.