Multiple ecosystem services change maps

Average percent change in multiple ecosystem services from 2010 to 2040 These maps display the average percent change in three rangeland ecosystem services – total ecosystem carbon, critical habitat and water availability – from 2010 to 2040 for three IPCC-SRES scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and two climate projections (warm, wet future and hot, dry future). Total ecosystem carbon is total carbon stored in vegetation and soils (up to 20 cm in depth), and was estimated annually from 2006 to 2050 by the U.S. Geological Survey’s General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) (http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/land_carbon/BGM.asp). See Percent change in total ecosystem carbon dataset page for model details. Critical habitat is defined as critical priority conservation areas mapped in the California Rangeland Conservation Coalition’s focus area map (http://www.carangeland.org/focusarea.html) (TNC, 2007). Modeling change in critical habitat is described on the Percent change in critical habitat dataset page. Water availability is defined as recharge plus runoff. Future change in water availability was modeled using the U.S. Geological Survey’s Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a regional water balance model (Flint et al. 2013, Flint and Flint, 2012). See Ratio of recharge to runoff dataset page for model details. Scenarios of critical habitat and carbon for 2040 were coupled with percent change in water availability under two climate projections for climate period 2010-2039. All model outputs were averaged by watershed area. Watershed boundaries are from the 8-digit Watershed Boundary Dataset (http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/huc.html). Average percent change in multiple ecosystem services was calculated as: AVEES = (ΔH + ΔC + ΔW)/3 AVEES = average percent change in ecosystem services ΔH = change in percentage of watershed area that contains critical habitat from 2010 to 2040 ΔC = percent change in total ecosystem carbon from 2010 to 2040, averaged by watershed area ΔW = percent change in water availability from climate period 1981-2010 to 2010-2039, averaged by watershed References Flint, L.E., A.L. Flint, J.H. Thorne, and R. Boynton. 2013. Fine-scale hydrologic modeling for regional landscape applications: the California Basin Characterization Model development and performance. Ecological Processes 2:25. Available online at: http://www.ecologicalprocesses.com/content/2/1/25 Flint, L.E. and Flint A.L. 2012. Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecologic modeling and analysis. Ecological Processes 1:2. Available online at: http://www.ecologicalprocesses.com/content/1/1/2 Leh, M. D. K., M. D. Matlock, E. C. Cummings, and L. L. Nalley. 2013. Quantifying and mapping multiple ecosystem services change in West Africa. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 165:6-18. The Nature Conservancy (TNC). 2007. California Rangeland Conservation Coalition Biological Prioritization of Rangelands: Approach and Methods. Available online at: http://www.carangeland.org/images/Appraoch_and_Methods.pdf.