CA LCC Project

Decision support for climate change adaptation and fire management strategies for at risk species in southern California

Project Information

This project integrated fire risk models, species distribution models (SDMs) and population models with scenarios of future climate and land cover to project how the effects of climate-induced changes to species distributions and land use change will impact threatened species in fire-prone ecosystems. This project also identified and prioritized potential management responses to climate change (e.g. assisted colonization, fire management, land protection, dispersal corridors).Products include: 1) maps of habitat suitability under current and future climate change, current and future projected urban growth and combinations of climate change and future projected urban growth, under the two most appropriate climate scenarios for southern California; 2) linked population models and dynamic bioclimate envelopes that will form the basis for testing climate change adaptation options and other management scenarios; 3) spatially/temporally explicit recommendations on the most suitable management option (in terms of population improvement under climate change and urban growth) for each species addressed; 4) spatially explicit recommendations for functional types, and habitat specialist types, on the most suitable management option; and 5) an adaptive management framework for structured decision making that can be updated as new information becomes available.

This project was highlighted in the March 2014 Estuary News

Full Proposal Title: 
Decision support for climate change adaptation and fire management strategies for at risk species in southern California
Project Lead: 
Helen Regan, helen.regan@ucr.edu
Status: 
Completed
Starting Date: 
2011-09
Ending Date: 
2012-12
Total LCC Funding: 
99867
Total Matching or In-Kind Funds: 
50840
Attachments

Products of this project

Title Deliverable Typesort descending Release Date Commons Catalog Record or External Link
Maps: Projected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of Ceanothus greggii Datasets / Database Mar 2014
Maps: Projected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of Tecate cypress Datasets / Database Mar 2014
Maps: Projected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of Ceanothus verrucosus Datasets / Database Mar 2014
Maps: Projected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of big-eared woodrat (Neotoma macrotis) Datasets / Database Mar 2014
Evaluation of assisted colonization strategies under global change for a rare, fire-dependent plant (Tecate cypress). Publication Nov 2011
Does functional type vulnerability to multiple threats depend on spatial context in Mediterranean-climate regions? (Spatially/temporally explicit management recommendations for Ceanothus species: greggii and verrucosus) Publication Mar 2013
Linking spatially explicit species distribution and population models to plan for the persistence of species under global change. (Adaptive management framework for decision making under global change.) Publication Mar 2013
Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for long-lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization and fire regime. Publication Apr 2014
Maps: Projected climate change and urbanization impacts on the distribution of California gnatcatcher Datasets / Database Mar 2014
Article in March 2014 Estuary News Publication : Article Mar 2014