Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the San Francisco Bay Area: A Synthesis of PIER Program Reports and Other Relevant Research

This paper synthesizes San Francisco Bay Area-focused findings from research conducted in
2010–2012 as part of the state’s Vulnerability and Adaptation study sponsored by the California
Energy Commission’s Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program. Historical observations
of changes already evident are summarized, as well as projections of future changes in climate
based on modeling studies using various plausible scenarios of how emissions of heat-trapping
gases in the atmosphere may change. Studies synthesized here show how these climate changes
increase risks to society and natural ecosystems in a number of ways. Sectors for which impacts,
vulnerabilities, and adaptation options are presented include water, agriculture, energy supply
and demand, transportation, ecosystems, public health, wildfire, and coastal resources. Results
show that depending on the vulnerability of human and natural communities, and their abilities
to respond to these growing risks through adaptive changes, the San Francisco Bay Area could experience either significant impacts or maintain its resilience in the face of a rapidly changing environment.