Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Intraspecific Variation

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Attached below as a zip folder of layer files.

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Full Title: 
Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Intraspecific Variation

From Project: Maximizing evolutionary potential under climate change in southern California protected areas.

Each of full climate models (excluding vegetation and elevation variables for which there were no future projections) were subsequently projected onto predicted future climate layers from the IPCC 4th Assessment Report A1B climate change scenario for the decades 2050-2060 and 2080-2090. These predictions represent conservative efforts, however, as the predictions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations may be reached much sooner, as current emissions already exceed the trajectories of the highest scenarios. Thus, projections of genetic variation on the 2080-2090 climate scenarios are likely relevant for purposes of our study. From the predictions of genetic variation under current and future climate, we generated a change map for each of the target taxa, showing the level of predicted change in genetic variation between current conditions and those for the period 2080-2090.

Maps of these predictions for decades 2050-2060, and 2080-2090, are provided in ASCII format for four species, the Side-blotched lizard (UTST), the Western fence lizard (SCOC), the Western skink (EUSK), and the Wrentit (WREN), across the Southern California Study area.

Processing and Workflow:
We used existing genetic data from 15-20 sites (depending on species) of the following bird and reptile species to identify areas important for conservation in the Santa Monica Mountains NRA: wrentit (Chamaea fasciata), western fence lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis), side-blotched lizard (Uta stansburiana), and western skink (Plestiodon skiltonianus). We used satellite remotely sensed and climate data, in conjunction with recently developed spatially explicit ecological modeling techniques to project genetic diversity across the landscape. In local to regional scale studies (with environmental layers at spatial resolutions of ~ 20m - 1km), environmental parameters can be used in a correlative approach to indirectly discern patterns of biodiversity. We then used genetic differences as a response variable and each of the environmental datasets across the study region as predictors to determine the relative role that each these predictors had in determine where genetic variation occurs across the landscape. From these models, we then identified regions that, for all species investigated, harbored high levels of beta diversity (or genetic turnover) in the Southern California area. Four major areas harboring high genetic diversity were identified; the Southern Coast (Malibu and adjacent areas south of the 101), Central/Simi Valley (Simi Valley on the eastern limit and Arroyo Vista on the western limit), Northeastern/Angeles National Forest (Angeles National Forest on the eastern limit and Santa Clarita Woodlands Park on the western limit), and Western/Oxnard (centered in Oxnard).

Ryan Harrigan <>; Thomas B Smith,
Climate Commons
Date Issued: 
May, 2017
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